|
Titel |
Predictability of Frontal Waves and Cyclones |
VerfasserIn |
Thomas Frame, John Methven, Nigel Roberts, Helen Titley |
Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
|
Medientyp |
Artikel
|
Sprache |
en
|
Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
Datensatznummer |
250134270
|
Publikation (Nr.) |
EGU/EGU2016-14972.pdf |
|
|
|
Zusammenfassung |
The practical limit of predictability of the occurrence extra-tropical cyclonic features (frontal waves and cyclones) is estimated using the Brier Skill of "strike probability" from the fifteen-day Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-15). An upper limit of 14 days is found for the prediction of the occurrence of the centres of strong cyclonic features (vorticity above the 90th percentile) within a region of about 1000km radius. However when weaker cyclonic features are considered skill is lost within 8 days. The statistics of features in the model show some systematic biases relative to the analysis climatology, in particular a reduction in the number features with increasing lead time and a sensitivity of the number of cyclonic features to the presence (or not) of stochastics physics, meaning that the actual limit of predictability is quite possibly longer than our estimate. |
|
|
|
|
|