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| Titel |
Stability, Variability and long-term forcing in a monthly-averaged temperature data |
| VerfasserIn |
Woosok Moon, John Wettlaufer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250132508
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-13024.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A periodic non-autonomous stochastic model is suggested to approximate the monthly-averaged data spanning decades. The model consists of the deterministic part showing the monthly sensitivity, a long-term forcing and the stochastic noise implying short-time processes such as weather. The time functions in the model, the monthly sensitivity, the magnitude of the noise and the long-term forcing, are determined by the statistics deduced from the original target data based on the assumption that there exists a clear distinction among time-scales. The generally constructed model is applied to global and hemisphere-averaged surface temperature spanning 133 years. The non-autonomous stochastic model successfully obtains the seasonal statistics similar to those from the data and constructs the long-term forcing, which could be interpreted as an additional heat flux caused by on-going global warming. Based on the results we could provide the information of climate sensitivity under global warming. |
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