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| Titel |
When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa? |
| VerfasserIn |
Simone Russo, Andrea F. Marchese, Jana Sillmann, Giuseppina Immè |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250132181
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-12663.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Africa is one of the most vulnarable continent to climate change. In the upcoming
decades the occurrence of longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves could have a
strong impact on mortality and crop production. Here, by applying the Heat Wave
Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the
magnitude and the spatial extent of the most extreme heat waves experienced in
Africa between 1979 and July 2015. Our results show that all these events had
lower magnitude and spatial extent than the most unusual heat wave of the present
era that occurred in Russia in 2010. The latter is compared with regional climate
projections suggesting that in Africa an event of similar magnitude will become
normal by 2040 under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario (i.e. RCP8.5), when
annual mean temperatures are projected to be 1.5oC warmer compared to current
climate. |
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