 |
| Titel |
Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems |
| VerfasserIn |
Jakob Runge, Vladimir Petoukhov, Jonathan Donges, Jaroslav Hlinka, Nikola Jajcay, Martin Vejmelka, David Hartman, Norbert Marwan, Milan Palus, Jürgen Kurths |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
en
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250132036
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-12501.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth’s climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme events or geoengineering. Here a data-driven approach is introduced based on a dimension reduction, causal reconstruction, and novel network measures based on causal effect theory that go beyond standard complex network tools by distinguishing direct from indirect pathways. Applied to a data set of atmospheric dynamics, the method identifies several strongly uplifting regions acting as major gateways of perturbations spreading in the atmosphere. Additionally, the method provides a stricter statistical approach to pathways of atmospheric teleconnections, yielding insights into the Pacific–Indian Ocean interaction relevant for monsoonal dynamics. The novel causal interaction perspective provides a complementary approach to simulations or experiments for understanding the functioning of complex spatio-temporal systems with potential applications in increasing their resilience to shocks or extreme events.
Reference:
Runge, J., Petoukhov, V., Donges, J. F., Hlinka, J., Jajcay, N., Vejmelka, M., Hartman, D., Marwan, M., Paluš, M., Kurths, J. (2015). Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems. Nature Communications, 6, 8502. doi:10.1038/ncomms9502 |
|
|
|
|
|
|