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| Titel |
Volcano Deformation and Eruption Forecasting using Data Assimilation: Case of Grimsvötn volcano in Iceland |
| VerfasserIn |
Mary Grace Bato, Virginie Pinel, Yajing Yan |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250131418
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-11825.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The recent advances in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imaging and the
increasing number of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) networks recorded on
volcanoes provide continuous and spatially extensive evolution of surface displacements
during inter-eruptive periods. For basaltic volcanoes, these measurements combined with
simple dynamical models (Lengliné et al. 2008 [1], Pinel et al, 2010 [2], Reverso et al, 2014
[3]) can be exploited to characterise and constrain parameters of one or several magmatic
reservoirs using inversion methods.
On the other hand, data assimilation–a time-stepping process that best combines
models and observations, sometimes a priori information based on error statistics to
predict the state of a dynamical system–has gained popularity in various fields of
geoscience (e.g. ocean-weather forecasting, geomagnetism and natural resources
exploration). In this work, we aim to first test the applicability and benefit of data
assimilation, in particular the Ensemble Kalman Filter [4], in the field of volcanology. We
predict the temporal behaviors of the overpressures and deformations by applying the
two-magma chamber model of Reverso et. al., 2014 [3] and by using synthetic
deformation data in order to establish our forecasting strategy. GPS time-series data of the
recent eruptions at Grimsvötn volcano is used for the real case applicability of the
method.
[1] Lengliné, O., D Marsan, J Got, V. Pinel, V. Ferrazzini, P. Obuko, Seismicity and
deformation induced by magma accumulation at three basaltic volcanoes, J. Geophys. Res.,
113, B12305, 2008.
[2] V. Pinel, C. Jaupart and F. Albino, On the relationship between cycles of
eruptive activity and volcanic edifice growth, J. Volc. Geotherm. Res, 194, 150-164,
2010
[3] T. Reverso, J. Vandemeulebrouck, F. Jouanne, V. Pinel, T. Villemin, E. Sturkell, A
two-magma chamber as a source of deformation at Grimsvötn volcano, Iceland, JGR,
2014
[4] Evensen, G., The Ensemble Kalman Filter: theoretical formulation and practical
implementation. Ocean Dyn. 53, 343-367, 2003 |
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