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| Titel |
Causal Relationships Among Time Series of the Lange Bramke Catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany) |
| VerfasserIn |
Britta Aufgebauer, Michael Hauhs, Christina Bogner, Henning Meesenburg, Holger Lange |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250129851
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-10020.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has recently been introduced by Sugihara et al. for the
identification and quantification of causal relationships among ecosystem variables. In
particular, the method allows to decide on the direction of causality; in some cases, the
causality might be bidirectional, indicating a network structure. We extend this approach by
introducing a method of surrogate data to obtain confidence intervals for CCM
results.
We then apply this method to time series from stream water chemistry. Specifically, we
analyze a set of eight dissolved major ions from three different catchments belonging to
the hydrological monitoring system at the Bramke valley in the Harz Mountains,
Germany. Our results demonstrate the potentials and limits of CCM as a monitoring
instrument in forestry and hydrology or as a tool to identify processes in ecosystem
research. While some networks of causally linked ions can be associated with simple
physical and chemical processes, other results illustrate peculiarities of the three
studied catchments, which are explained in the context of their special history. |
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