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| Titel |
Some Notes on Retrospective Evaluation of PSHA |
| VerfasserIn |
Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Pamela Roselli |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250127842
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-7763.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In usual practice, PSHA models are constructed by merging different models that are expected to sample the so-called epistemic uncertainty. The merging is usually made through a logic tree scheme where each model/branch is subjectively weighted. Noteworthy, neither the final PSHA model nor its components are usually subjected to a rigorous testing phase. Although the proper way to evaluate a model is through prospective testing (where the data are independent from the model calibration), here we discuss the benefit of the retrospective analysis of the whole PSHA model and/or of its components/branches. In particular, we i) introduce a consistent probabilistic framework for a meaningful evaluation (retrospectively and prospectively) of a PSHA model; ii) describe merits and limits of retrospective evaluation in the final assessment of PSHA model and in assisting experts to describe the epistemic uncertainty; iii) estimate the impact of aftershocks in evaluating PSHA models that are (almost always) based on declustering. All these issues are explored through real numerical examples. |
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