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| Titel |
ElEvoHI—Improving CME arrival predictions using heliospheric imaging |
| VerfasserIn |
Tanja Rollett, Christian Möstl, Alexey Isavnin, Manuel Kubicka, Ute Amerstorfer, Jackie Davies, Richard Harrison |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250127431
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-7309.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The STEREO mission has sampled a tremendous amount of data, which have served as a
basis to develop a lot of new methods to analyze the dynamics of coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) during their journey through interplanetary space. The STEREO heliospheric
imagers (HI) in particular are unsurpassed in their contribution to a deeper understanding of
how CMEs are influenced by interaction with the solar wind and other CMEs and
how they evolve in the inner heliosphere. Although STEREO is currently not well
observing the space between the Sun and Earth, the large data repository of HI
observations enables us to further improve the prediction of CME arrival times and
speeds using HI observations—particularly with regard to a potential future L5
mission.
We present a new method for predicting arrival times and speeds of CMEs at any location
in the inner heliosphere: ElEvoHI. This new approach uses HI observations as input and
assumes an elliptic CME front shape. The solar wind influence is taken into account by fitting
the observations using the drag-based model. In this way, it is possible to gain all parameters
needed as input for the Ellipse Evolution model (ElEvo), which is then used to predict the
CME arrival. To demonstrate the applicability of ElEvoHI we present the forecasts for 20
CMEs remotely observed by STEREO/HI and compare the forecasts to their in situ arrival
times and speeds at 1 AU. Compared to the widely used Fixed-φ fitting method, ElEvoHI
improves the arrival time forecast by 2.2 hours to ±6.5 hours and the arrival speed forecast
by 260 km s−1 to ±55 km s−1. In particular, the remarkable improvement of the arrival
speed prediction is crucial for predicting geomagnetic storm strength on Earth. |
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