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| Titel |
Dynamical phenomena: implications for extreme event attribution |
| VerfasserIn |
Dann Mitchell, Paolo Davini, Ben Harvey, Neil Massey, Karsten Haustein, Tim Woollings, Richard Jones, Fredi Otto, Benoit Guillod, Sarah Sparrow, David Wallom, Myles Allen |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250126722
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-6484.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events
are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A multi-thousand
initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both
the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5
(CMIP-5) and the CMIP-5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP-5). The analysis focuses on
mid Northern Latitudes (primarily Europe) during winter, and is compared with
ERA-Interim reanalysis. The tri-modal Atlantic Eddy-driven jet distribution is remarkably
well captured in HadAM3P, but not so in CMIP-5 or AMIP-5. The well known
underestimation of blocking in the Atlantic region is apparent in CMIP-5 and AMIP-5,
and to a lesser extent in HadAM3P. Pacific blocking features are well produced
in all modeling initiatives. Blocking duration is generally biased towards models
reproducing too many short-lived events. Associated storm tracks are too zonal over the
Atlantic in the CMIP-5 ensemble, but well simulated in HadAM3P with the exception
of being too weak over Western Europe. In all cases, the CMIP-5 and AMIP-5
performances were almost identical, suggesting that the atmospheric modes considered here
are not strongly coupled to SSTs, and perhaps other model characteristics such
as resolution are more important. It is recommended that only models capable of
producing the necessary dynamical phenomena be used for event attribution analyses. |
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