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| Titel |
Assessing the role of summer NAO for the seasonal predictability of climate impact indices in Eastern Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
Joaquín Bedia Jiménez, Carlo Buontempo, Nicola Golding, Jose Manuel Gutierrez Llorente |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250125368
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-4941.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Seasonal predictions are known to have a limited skill in Europe. One of the few exception is represented by the South-eastern part of the Balkans where especially in summer climate predictions appears to be more skilful than standard benchmarks. We present here a analysis of a set of climate-relevant indices calculated using both ECMWF system 4 and Met Office GloSea5 seasonal prediction systems. These impact relevant predictions appears to have some skill over the region. We put in relation such a skill with a number of large scale drivers that are known to be relevant for the region. In particular we analysed the link between these indices and the ability the two models have in describing the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) which despite its limited amplitude over the north Atlantic, represents an important mode of variability for the region. The paper attempts to describe the physical mechanisms that are responsible for such a teleconnection. |
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