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| Titel |
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: model evaluation and perspectives |
| VerfasserIn |
Lauriane Batté, Constantin Ardilouze, Matthieu Chevallier, Michel Déqué |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250125111
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-4644.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Météo-France takes part in the WWRP/Thorpex-WCRP joint project S2S (Robertson et al. 2015) since May 2015 and thus provides sub-seasonal ensemble forecasts run with the CNRM-CM coupled model (Voldoire et al. 2013) on the 1st of each month up to 61 days.
After describing the current setup, this presentation provides an analysis of the CNRM-CM model ensemble hindcast available on the S2S database, which spans 22 years, by assessing forecast quality and model skill for key variables (e.g. 500 hPa geopotential height, near-surface temperature, sea ice extent) and relevant phenomena at the S2S scale (MJO, NAO). We focus on forecast weeks 2-4 and show that the model exhibits limited but reasonable skill at these time scales. We also examine the case of the July 2015 real-time forecast, focusing on the western Europe heat wave.
Prospects for the increased frequency of real-time S2S forecasts and multi-model assessments using other systems of the S2S database will also be presented. |
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