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| Titel |
Identifying the occurrence time of mainshocks by means of Natural Time Analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas, Mary S. Lazaridou, Panayiotis A. Varotsos |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250123579
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-2861.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| By employing the new view of time, termed natural time [1], recent advances on the natural time analysis of a seismic catalogue [2] include: First, the fluctuations of the order parameter $\kappa$$_1$ of seismicity exhibit a minimum almost simultaneous with the initiation of a Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activity [3,4]. This opens the window of a deeper understanding of the critical nature of preseismic process [5]. Second, a spatiotemporal study of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity leads to an estimate of the epicentral area of a major impending mainshock [6]. Third, by starting the natural time analysis of the seismicity in the candidate epicentral area at the initiation time of the SES activity, we find that the $\kappa$$_1$ values converge to the critical value [7-9] $\kappa$$_1$=0.070 a few days to one week before a mainshock. Recent applications of this procedure are presented for mainshocks that occurred close to Athens [10] during the last few years.
References
[1] P. A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis and E. S. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 66} (2002) 011902; Practica of Athens Academy {\bf 76} (2001) 294.
[2] P.A.Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, H.K. Tanaka and E.S. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 72} (2005) 041103.
[3] P. Varotsos and M. Lazaridou, Tectonophysics {\bf 188} (1991) 321.
[4] P. A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, and M. S. Lazaridou, Tectonophysics {\bf 589} (2013) 116.
[5] P. Varotsos, K. Alexopoulos and M. Lazaridou, Tectonophysics {\bf 224} (1993) 1.
[6] N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, P.A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, and S. Uyeda Proc Natl Acad Sci USA {\bf 112} (2015) 986.
[7] P. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, S. Uyeda, and M. Kamogawa, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA {\bf 108} (2011) 11361.
[8] N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, P.A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, H. Tanaka and S. Uyeda Proc Natl Acad Sci USA {\bf 110} (2013) 13734.
[9] N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, M.S. Lazaridou, and P.A. Varotsos, Proc Japan Acad Ser. ? {\bf 84} (2008) 331.
[10] P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas, S.-R. G. Christopoulos, M.S. Lazaridou-Varotsos, Earthq Sci {\bf 28} (2015) 215. |
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