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| Titel |
Interactions between apparently ‘primary’ weather-driven hazards and their cost |
| VerfasserIn |
John K. Hillier, Neil Macdonald, Gregor Leckebusch |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250122569
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-1631.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A statistical analysis of the largest weather-driven hazards in the UK contradicts the typical
view that each predominates in distinct events that do not interact with those of other hazard
types (i.e. are ‘primary’); this potentially has implications for any multi-hazard environments
globally where some types of severe event are still thought to occur independently. By a first
co-investigation of long (1884-2008) meteorological time-series and nationwide
insurance losses for UK domestic houses (averaging £1.1 billion/yr), new systematic
interactions within a 1-year timeframe are identified between temporally-distinct floods,
winter wind storms, and shrink-swell subsidence events (P < 0.03); this increases
costs by up to £0.3 billion/yr (i.e. 26%), although impacts will be spatially variable
depending upon the interplay of hazards. Memory required in the environmental
system to cause these intra-annual links between event types appears to reside in soil
moisture and, tentatively, sea surface temperatures. Similar, unidentified interactions
between non-synchronous events are likely worldwide, and the analytical methods
we have developed to identify and quantify them are suitable for application to
meteorological, geological (e.g. volcanic) and cryospheric (e.g. avalanches) hazards. |
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