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| Titel |
Study of minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity
using GCMT catalogue in global scale. |
| VerfasserIn |
Stavros-Richard G. Christopoulos, Nicholas V. Sarlis, Efthimios S. Skordas |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250121575
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-349.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| It has been recently shown [1,2] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are
globally correlated. The identification of this correlation became possible when studying the
variance κ1 of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for
seismicity[3,4]. In the present study, we focus on the behaviour of the fluctuations of κ1
before major earthquakes using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue for a
magnitude threshold Mthres=5.0 as in Ref.[5]. Natural time analysis reveals that
distinct minima of the fluctuations κ1of seismicity appear within almost five and
a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than
M8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [6] that similar minima of
seismicity order parameter fluctuations had been observed before all major shallow
earthquakes in Japan. Finally, we examine the statistical significance of the results
by using ROC graphs [7,8] and the proposed prediction method has a p-value to
occur by chance well below 0.1%. The hit rate is 100% with a false alarm rate only
6.67%. An attempt to lower the target earthquake magnitude threshold will be also
presented.
REFERENCES
[1] N. V. Sarlis, Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011).
[2] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)
[3] P. A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, and E. S. Skordas, Practica of Athens Acad. 76, 294
(2001).
[4] P. A. Varotsos, N. V. Sarlis, and E. S. Skordas, Phys. Rev. E 66, 011902
(2002).
[5] N.V. Sarlis, S.-R. G. Christopoulos, and E. S. Skordas, Chaos 25, 063110
(2015)
[6] N. V. Sarlis et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 13734 (2013)
[7] T. Fawcett, Pattern Recognit. Lett. 27, 861 (2006).
[8] N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Comput. Phys. Commun. 185, 1172 (2014). |
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