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| Titel |
Online NARMAX model for electron fluxes at GEO |
| VerfasserIn |
R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, S. A. Billings |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 33, no. 3 ; Nr. 33, no. 3 (2015-03-27), S.405-411 |
| Datensatznummer |
250121183
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-33-405-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Multi-input single-output (MISO) nonlinear autoregressive moving average with
exogenous inputs (NARMAX) models have been derived to forecast the > 0.8 MeV
and > 2 MeV electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO). The NARMAX
algorithm is able to identify mathematical model for a wide class of
nonlinear systems from input–output data. The models employ solar wind
parameters as inputs to provide an estimate of the average electron flux for
the following day, i.e. the 1-day forecast. The identified models
are shown to provide a reliable forecast for both > 0.8 and > 2 MeV
electron fluxes and are capable of providing real-time warnings of when the
electron fluxes will be dangerously high for satellite systems. These models,
named SNB3GEO > 0.8 and > 2 MeV electron flux models, have been
implemented online at http://www.ssg.group.shef.ac.uk/USSW/UOSSW.html. |
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