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| Titel |
Difference between even- and odd-numbered cycles in the predictability of solar activity and prediction of the amplitude of cycle 25 |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Yoshida |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 32, no. 8 ; Nr. 32, no. 8 (2014-08-25), S.1035-1042 |
| Datensatznummer |
250121100
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-32-1035-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| It was shown previously that the sunspot number (SSN) at a point 3 years
before the minimum is well correlated with the maximum SSN of the succeeding
cycle, and a better correlation is obtained when the maximum SSN is replaced
by the average SSN over a cycle for which the average SSN is calculated by
dividing cycles at a point 3 years before the minimum (Yoshida and
Yamagishi, 2010; Yoshida and Sayre, 2012). Following these findings, we
demonstrate in this paper that the correlation between the SSN 3 years
before the minimum and the amplitude of the coming cycle differs
significantly between even-numbered and odd-numbered cycles: the correlation
is much better for even-numbered cycles. Further, it is shown that the
amplitude of even-numbered cycles is strongly correlated with that of the
succeeding odd-numbered cycles, while the correlation between amplitudes of
odd-numbered cycles and those of succeeding even-numbered cycles is very
poor. Using the excellent correlations, we estimate the maximum SSN of the
current cycle 24 at 81.3 and predict the maximum SSN of cycle 25 to be
115.4 ± 11.9. It is of note, however, that a peak of the SSN has been
observed in February 2012 and the peak value 66.9 is considerably smaller
than the estimated maximum SSN of cycle 24. We conjecture that the second
higher peak of the SSN may appear. |
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