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| Titel |
Nonlinear dynamics approach to the predictability of the Cane–Zebiak coupled ocean–atmosphere model |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Siqueira, B. Kirtman |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 21, no. 1 ; Nr. 21, no. 1 (2014-01-29), S.155-163 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120882
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-21-155-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The predictability of the Cane–Zebiak coupled ocean–atmosphere model is
investigated using nonlinear dynamics analysis. Newer theoretical concepts
are applied to the coupled model in order to help quantify maximal prediction
horizons for finite amplitude perturbations on different scales.
Predictability analysis based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent considers
infinitesimal perturbations, which are associated with errors in the smallest
fastest-evolving scales of motion. However, these errors become irrelevant
for the predictability of larger scale motions. In this study we employed
finite-size Lyapunov exponent analysis to assess the predictability of the
Cane–Zebiak coupled ocean–atmosphere model as a function of scale. We
demonstrate the existence of fast and slow timescales, as noted in earlier
studies, and the expected enhanced predictability of the anomalies on large
scales. The final results and conclusions clarify the applicability of these
new methods to seasonal forecasting problems. |
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