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| Titel |
Climate change and its impacts on river discharge in two climate regions in China |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Xu, Y. Luo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 11 ; Nr. 19, no. 11 (2015-11-20), S.4609-4618 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120853
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-4609-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Understanding the heterogeneity of climate change and its impacts on annual
and seasonal discharge and the difference between median flow and extreme
flow in different climate regions is of utmost importance to successful
water management. To quantify the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of
climate change impacts on hydrological processes, this study simulated river
discharge in the River Huangfuchuan in semi-arid northern China and in the
River Xiangxi in humid southern China. The study assessed the uncertainty in
projected discharge for three time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) using
seven equally weighted GCMs (global climate models) for the SRES
(Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios) A1B scenario.
Climate projections that were applied to semi-distributed hydrological
models (Soil Water Assessment Tools, SWAT) in both catchments showed trends
toward warmer and wetter conditions, particularly for the River
Huangfuchuan. Results based on seven GCMs' projections indicated changes from −1.1 to
8.6 °C and 0.3 to 7.0 °C in seasonal temperature
and changes from −29 to 139 % and −32 to 85 % in seasonal precipitation in
the rivers Huangfuchuan and Xiangxi, respectively. The largest increases in
temperature and precipitation in both catchments were projected in the
spring and winter seasons. The main projected hydrologic impact was a more
pronounced increase in annual discharge in the River Huangfuchuan than in
the River Xiangxi. Most of the GCMs projected increased discharge in all
seasons, especially in spring, although the magnitude of these increases
varied between GCMs. The peak flows were projected to appear earlier than usual
in the River Huangfuchuan and later than usual in the River Xiangxi, while the GCMs
were fairly consistent in projecting increased extreme flows in both
catchments with varying magnitude compared to median flows. For the River
Huangfuchuan in the 2080s, median flow changed from −2 to 304 %, compared
to a −1 to 145 % change in high flow (Q05 exceedance threshold). For
the River Xiangxi, low flow (Q95 exceedance threshold) changed from −1 to 77 %
and high flow changed from −1 to 62 %, while median flow changed
from −4 to 23 %. The uncertainty analysis provided an improved
understanding of future hydrologic behavior in the watershed. Furthermore,
this study indicated that the uncertainty constrained by GCMs was critical
and should always be considered in analysis of climate change impacts and
adaptation. |
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