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| Titel |
Impact of the Three Gorges Dam, the South–North Water Transfer Project and water abstractions on the duration and intensity of salt intrusions in the Yangtze River estuary |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Webber, M. T. Li, J. Chen, B. Finlayson, D. Chen, Z. Y. Chen, M. Wang, J. Barnett |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 11 ; Nr. 19, no. 11 (2015-11-02), S.4411-4425 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120841
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-4411-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper assesses the impacts of the Three Gorges Dam, the South–North
Water Transfer Project and other water abstractions on the probability of
long-duration salt intrusions into the Yangtze River estuary. Studies of
intrusions of saltwater into estuaries are typically constrained by both
the short duration of discharge records and the paucity of observations of
discharge and salinity. Thus, studies of intrusions of saltwater into
estuaries typically seek to identify the conditions under which these intrusions
occur, using detailed observations for periods of 20–60 days. The paper
therefore first demonstrates a method by which to identify the conditions
under which intense intrusions of long-duration occur and then applies that
method to analyse the effect of the three projects. The paper constructs a
model of the relationship between salinity and discharge and then employs
Monte Carlo simulation methods to reconstruct the probability of observing
intrusions of differing intensities and durations in relation to discharge.
The model predicts that the duration of intrusions with chlorinity ≥ 250 mg L−1
(or ≥ 400 or 500 mg L−1) increases as the number
of consecutive days with discharge ≤ 12 000 m3 s−1 (or ≤
8000 m3 s−1 increases. The model predicts that in 1950–2014, the
number of consecutive days with chlorinity ≥ 250 mg L−1 averaged
21.34 yr−1; if the three projects operate according to their normal
rules, that average would rise to 41.20 yr−1. For a randomly selected
year of discharge history from the period 1950–2014, under normal
operating rules for these projects the probability of an intrusion rises from
0.25 (for 30-day intrusions) or 0.05 (for 60-day intrusions) to 0.57 or
0.28, respectively. |
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