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| Titel |
Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, G. Forzieri |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 5 ; Nr. 19, no. 5 (2015-05-11), S.2247-2260 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120709
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-2247-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Downscaling Experiment over Europe), a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become
available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities
arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on
meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work,
an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed
hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in
Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of
extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution
fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to
evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the
change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact
on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On
average, in Europe, flood peaks with return periods above 100 years are
projected to double in frequency within 3 decades. |
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