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| Titel |
Simulating past changes in the balance between water demand and availability and assessing their main drivers at the river basin scale |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Fabre, D. Ruelland, A. Dezetter, B. Grouillet |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 3 ; Nr. 19, no. 3 (2015-03-05), S.1263-1285 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120651
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-1263-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study we present an integrative modeling framework aimed at assessing
the balance between water demand and availability and its spatial and
temporal variability over long time periods. The model was developed and
tested over the period 1971–2009 in the Hérault
(2500 km2, France) and the Ebro
(85 000 km2, Spain) catchments. Natural streamflow
was simulated using a conceptual hydrological model. The regulation of river
flow was accounted for through a widely applicable demand-driven reservoir
management model applied to the largest dam in the Hérault Basin and to 11
major dams in the Ebro Basin. Urban water demand was estimated from
population and monthly unit water demand data. Water demand for irrigation
was computed from irrigated area, crop and soil data, and climatic forcing.
Water shortage was assessed at a 10-day time step by comparing water demand
and availability through indicators calculated at strategic resource and
demand nodes. The outcome of this study is twofold. First, we were able to
correctly simulate variations in influenced streamflow, reservoir levels and
water shortage between 1971 and 2009 in both basins, taking into account
climatic and anthropogenic pressures and changes in water management
strategies over time. Second, we provided information not available through
simple data analysis on the influence of withdrawals and consumptive use on
streamflow and on the drivers of imbalance between demand and availability.
Observed past variations in discharge were explained by separating
anthropogenic and climatic pressures in our simulations: 3% (20%) of the
decrease in the Hérault (Ebro) discharge were linked to anthropogenic
changes. Although key areas of the Hérault Basin were shown to be highly
sensitive to hydro-climatic variability, the balance between water demand and
availability in the Ebro Basin appears to be more critical, owing to high
agricultural pressure on water resources. The modeling framework developed
and tested in this study will be used to assess water balance under climatic
and socioeconomic prospective scenarios and to investigate the effectiveness
of adaptation policies aimed at maintaining the balance between water demand
and availability. |
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