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| Titel |
Climate and hydrological variability: the catchment filtering role |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Andrés-Doménech, R. García-Bartual, A. Montanari, J. B. Marco |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 1 ; Nr. 19, no. 1 (2015-01-21), S.379-387 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120598
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-379-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Measuring the impact of climate change on flood frequency is a complex and
controversial task. Identifying hydrological changes is difficult given the
factors, other than climate variability, which lead to significant
variations in runoff series. The catchment filtering role is often
overlooked and thus may hinder the correct identification of climate
variability signatures on hydrological processes. Does climate variability
necessarily imply hydrological variability? This research aims to
analytically derive the flood frequency distribution based on realistic
hypotheses about the rainfall process and the rainfall–runoff
transformation. The annual maximum peak flow probability distribution is
analytically derived to quantify the filtering effect of the rainfall–runoff
process on climate change. A sensitivity analysis is performed according to
typical semi-arid Mediterranean climatic and hydrological conditions,
assuming a simple but common scheme for the rainfall–runoff transformation
in small-size ungauged catchments, i.e. the CN-SCS model. Variability in
annual maximum peak flows and its statistical significance are analysed when
changes in the climatic input are introduced. Results show that depending on
changes in the annual number of rainfall events, the catchment filtering
role is particularly significant, especially when the event rainfall volume
distribution is not strongly skewed. Results largely depend on the return
period: for large return periods, peak flow variability is significantly
affected by the climatic input, while for lower return periods, infiltration
processes smooth out the impact of climate change. |
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