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| Titel |
Climate change and non-stationary flood risk for the upper Truckee River basin |
| VerfasserIn |
L. E. Condon, S. Gangopadhyay, T. Pruitt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 1 ; Nr. 19, no. 1 (2015-01-12), S.159-175 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120586
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-159-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future flood frequency for the upper Truckee River basin (UTRB) is assessed
using non-stationary extreme value models and design-life risk methodology.
Historical floods are simulated at two UTRB gauge locations, Farad and Reno,
using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and non-stationary
Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models. The non-stationary GEV models are
fit to the cool season (November–April) monthly maximum flows using
historical monthly precipitation totals and average temperature. Future cool
season flood distributions are subsequently calculated using downscaled
projections of precipitation and temperature from the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) archive. The resulting exceedance
probabilities are combined to calculate the probability of a flood of a
given magnitude occurring over a specific time period (referred to as flood
risk) using recent developments in design-life risk methodologies. This
paper provides the first end-to-end analysis using non-stationary GEV
methods coupled with contemporary downscaled climate projections to
demonstrate the evolution of a flood risk profile over typical design life
periods of existing infrastructure that are vulnerable to flooding (e.g., dams,
levees, bridges and sewers). Results show that flood risk increases
significantly over the analysis period (from 1950 through 2099). This
highlights the potential to underestimate flood risk using traditional
methodologies that do not account for time-varying risk. Although model
parameters for the non-stationary method are sensitive to small changes in
input parameters, analysis shows that the changes in risk over time are
robust. Overall, flood risk at both locations (Farad and Reno) is projected
to increase 10–20% between the historical period 1950 to 1999 and the future
period 2000 to 2050 and 30–50% between the same historical period and a future period of 2050 to 2099. |
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