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| Titel |
Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle In CMIP5 projections |
| VerfasserIn |
P. A. Dirmeyer, G. Fang, Z. Wang, P. Yadav, A. Milton |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 12 ; Nr. 18, no. 12 (2014-12-19), S.5317-5329 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120572
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-5317-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Results from 10 global climate change models are synthesized to investigate
changes in extremes, defined as wettest and driest deciles in precipitation,
soil moisture and runoff based on each model's historical 20th century
simulated climatology. Under a moderate warming scenario, regional increases
in drought frequency are found with little increase in floods. For more
severe warming, both drought and flood become much more prevalent, with
nearly the entire globe significantly affected. Soil moisture changes tend
toward drying, while runoff trends toward flood. To determine how different
sectors of society dependent on various components of the surface water
cycle may be affected, changes in monthly means and interannual variability
are compared to data sets of crop distribution and river basin boundaries.
For precipitation, changes in interannual variability can be important even
when there is little change in the long-term mean. Over 20% of the globe
is projected to experience a combination of reduced precipitation and
increased variability under severe warming. There are large differences in
the vulnerability of different types of crops, depending on their spatial
distributions. Increases in soil moisture variability are again found to be
a threat even where soil moisture is not projected to decrease. The
combination of increased variability and greater annual discharge over many
basins portends increased risk of river flooding, although a number of
basins are projected to suffer surface water shortages. |
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