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| Titel |
Socio-hydrologic modeling to understand and mediate the competition for water between agriculture development and environmental health: Murrumbidgee River basin, Australia |
| VerfasserIn |
T. H. M. van Emmerik, Z. Li, M. Sivapalan  , S. Pande, J. Kandasamy, H. H. G. Savenije, A. Chanan, S. Vigneswaran |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 10 ; Nr. 18, no. 10 (2014-10-29), S.4239-4259 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120507
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-4239-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash
point in the coming decades in many parts of the world. An entirely new and
comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic
understanding of that competition, thereby enabling the development of
effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a modeling study centered
on the Murrumbidgee River basin (MRB). The MRB has witnessed a unique system
dynamics over the last 100 years as a result of interactions between patterns
of water management and climate driven hydrological variability. Data
analysis has revealed a pendulum swing between agricultural development and
restoration of environmental health and ecosystem services over different
stages of basin-scale water resource development. A parsimonious, stylized,
quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that simulates the
two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems of the MRB is used to
mimic and explain dominant features of the pendulum swing. The model consists
of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations that describe the
interaction between five state variables that govern the co-evolution:
reservoir storage, irrigated area, human population, ecosystem health, and
environmental awareness. The model simulations track the propagation of the
external climatic and socio-economic drivers through this coupled, complex
system to the emergence of the pendulum swing. The model results point to a
competition between human "productive" and environmental "restorative"
forces that underpin the pendulum swing. Both the forces are endogenous,
i.e., generated by the system dynamics in response to external drivers and
mediated by humans through technology change and environmental awareness,
respectively. Sensitivity analysis carried out with the model further reveals
that socio-hydrologic modeling can be used as a tool to explain or gain
insight into observed co-evolutionary dynamics of diverse human–water
coupled systems. This paper therefore contributes to the ultimate development
of a generic modeling framework that can be applied to human–water coupled
systems in different climatic and socio-economic settings. |
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