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| Titel |
Alternative configurations of quantile regression for estimating predictive uncertainty in water level forecasts for the upper Severn River: a comparison |
| VerfasserIn |
P. López López, J. S. Verkade, A. H. Weerts, D. P. Solomatine |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 9 ; Nr. 18, no. 9 (2014-09-08), S.3411-3428 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120458
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-3411-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of
a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological
uncertainty. It
builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade
(2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the
quantile regression technique to estimate predictive hydrological
uncertainty using a deterministic water level forecast
as a predictor. The various configurations are designed to address
two issues with the WWV2011 implementation: (i) quantile crossing,
which causes non-strictly rising cumulative predictive distributions, and
(ii) the use of linear quantile models to describe joint distributions that
may not be strictly linear. Thus, four configurations were built: (i) a
''classical" quantile regression, (ii) a configuration that implements a
non-crossing quantile technique, (iii) a configuration where quantile models
are built in normal space after application of the normal quantile
transformation (NQT) (similar to the
implementation used by WWV2011), and (iv) a configuration that
builds quantile model separately on separate domains of the predictor. Using
each configuration, four reforecasting series of water levels at 14 stations
in the upper Severn River were established. The quality of these four series
was intercompared using a set of graphical and numerical verification
metrics. Intercomparison showed that reliability and sharpness vary across
configurations, but in none of the configurations do these two forecast
quality aspects improve simultaneously. Further analysis shows that skills in
terms of the Brier skill score, mean continuous ranked probability skill
score and relative operating characteristic score is very similar across the
four configurations. |
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