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| Titel |
Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Pande, M. Ertsen, M. Sivapalan  |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 8 ; Nr. 18, no. 8 (2014-08-27), S.3239-3258 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120449
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-3239-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Ancient civilizations may have dispersed or collapsed under extreme dry
conditions. There are indications that the same may hold for modern
societies. However, hydroclimatic change cannot be the sole predictor of the
fate of contemporary societies in water-scarce regions. This paper focuses on
technological change as a factor that may ameliorate the effects of
increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic
changes. We study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled
human–water systems, and model technological change as an endogenous process
that depends on many factors intrinsic to coupled human–water dynamics. We
do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but assume
that it results from societal actions.
While the proposed model is a rather simple model of a coupled human–water
system, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological,
population, production and consumption per capita changes. The model
demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of
increasing water scarcity, but typically it does so only to a certain extent.
In general we find that endogenous technology change under increasing water
scarcity helps to delay the peak of population size before it inevitably
starts to decline. We also analyze the case when water remains constant over
time and find that co-evolutionary trajectories can never grow at a constant
rate; rather the rate itself grows with time. Thus our model does not predict
a co-evolutionary trajectory of a socio-hydrological system where
technological innovation harmoniously provides for a growing population. It
allows either for an explosion or an eventual dispersal of population. The
latter occurs only under increasing water scarcity. As a result, we draw the
conclusion that declining consumption per capita despite technological
advancement and increase in aggregate production may serve as a useful
predictor of upcoming decline in contemporary societies in water-scarce
basins. |
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