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| Titel |
Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Roudier, A. Ducharne, L. Feyen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 7 ; Nr. 18, no. 7 (2014-07-31), S.2789-2801 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120421
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-2789-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This review summarizes the impacts of climate change on
runoff in West Africa, assesses the uncertainty in the projections and
describes future research needs for the region. To do so, we constitute a
meta-database made of 19 studies and 301 future runoff change values. The
future tendency in streamflow developments is overall very uncertain (median
of the 301 points is 0% and mean +5.2%), except for (i) the Gambia
River, which exhibits a significant negative change (median = −4.5%), and
(ii) the Sassandra and the Niger rivers, where the change is positive
(+14.4% and +6.1%). A correlation analysis revealed that runoff
changes are tightly linked to changes in rainfall (R = 0.49), and to a
smaller extent also to changes in potential evapotranspiration. Other
parameters than climate – such as the carbon effect on plant water efficiency,
land use dynamics or water withdrawals – could also significantly impact on
runoff, but they generally do not offset the effects of climate change. In
view of the potential changes, the large uncertainty therein and the high
vulnerability of the region to such changes, there is an urgent need for
integrated studies that quantify the potential effects of these processes on
water resources in West Africa and for more accuracy in climate models
rainfall projections. We especially underline the lack of information
concerning projections of future floods and droughts, and of interannual
fluctuations in streamflow. |
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