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| Titel |
Evaluation of Mekong River commission operational flood forecasts, 2000-2012 |
| VerfasserIn |
T. C. Pagano |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 7 ; Nr. 18, no. 7 (2014-07-17), S.2645-2656 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120412
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-2645-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study created a 13-year historical archive of operational flood
forecasts issued by the Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Center
(RFMMC) of the Mekong River Commission. The RFMMC issues 1- to 5-day daily
deterministic river height forecasts for 22 locations throughout the wet
season (June–October). When these forecasts reach near flood level,
government agencies and the public are encouraged to take protective action
against damages. When measured by standard skill scores, the forecasts
perform exceptionally well (e.g., 1 day-ahead Nash–Sutcliffe > 0.99)
although much of this apparent skill is due to the strong seasonal cycle and
the narrow natural range of variability at certain locations. Five-day
forecasts upstream of Phnom Penh typically have 0.8 m error standard
deviation, whereas below Phnom Penh the error is typically 0.3 m. The
coefficients of persistence for 1-day forecasts are typically
0.4–0.8 and 5-day forecasts are
typically 0.1–0.7. RFMMC uses a series of benchmarks to define a metric of
percentage satisfactory forecasts. As the benchmarks were derived based on
the average error, certain locations and lead times consistently appear less
satisfactory than others. Instead, different benchmarks were proposed and
derived based on the 70th percentile of absolute error over the 13-year
period. There are no obvious trends in the percentage of satisfactory
forecasts from 2002 to 2012, regardless of the benchmark chosen. Finally,
when evaluated from a categorical "crossing above/not-crossing above flood
level" perspective, the forecasts have a moderate probability of detection
(48% at 1 day ahead, 31% at 5 days ahead) and false alarm rate (13%
at 1 day ahead, 74% at 5 days ahead). |
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