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| Titel |
A baseline probabilistic drought forecasting framework using standardized soil moisture index: application to the 2012 United States drought |
| VerfasserIn |
A. AghaKouchak |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 7 ; Nr. 18, no. 7 (2014-07-04), S.2485-2492 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120402
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-2485-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The 2012 drought was one of the most extensive drought events in half a
century, resulting in over USD 12 billion in economic loss in the United
States and substantial indirect impacts on global food security and commodity
prices. An important feature of the 2012 drought was rapid development and
intensification in late spring/early summer, a critical time for crop
development and investment planning. Drought prediction remains a major
challenge because dynamical precipitation forecasts are highly uncertain, and
their prediction skill is low. Using a probabilistic framework for drought
forecasting based on the persistence property of accumulated soil moisture,
this paper shows that the US drought of summer 2012 was predictable several
months in advance. The presented drought forecasting framework provides the
probability occurrence of drought based on climatology and near-past
observations of soil moisture. The results indicate that soil moisture
exhibits higher persistence than precipitation, and hence improves drought
predictability. |
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