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| Titel |
Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, J. Sweeney |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 5 ; Nr. 18, no. 5 (2014-05-23), S.1935-1952 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120367
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-1935-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper revisits a widely cited study of the Boyne catchment in east
Ireland that attributed greater streamflow from the mid-1970s to increased
precipitation linked to a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Using the
method of multiple working hypotheses we explore a wider set of potential
drivers of hydrological change. Rainfall–runoff models are used to
reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate, taking account of
both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann–Kendall test for
monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test are applied to explore
signatures of change. Contrary to earlier work, arterial drainage and
simultaneous onset of field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s are now
invoked as the predominant drivers of change in annual mean and high flows
within the Boyne. However, a change in precipitation regime is also present
in March, thereby amplifying the effect of drainage. This new explanation
posits that multiple drivers acting simultaneously were responsible for the
observed change, with the relative contribution of each driver dependant on
the timescale investigated. This work demonstrates that valuable insights
can be gained from a systematic application of the method of multiple
working hypotheses in an effort to move towards more rigorous attribution,
which is an important part of managing emerging impacts on hydrological systems. |
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