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| Titel |
Forecasting droughts in East Africa |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Mwangi, F. Wetterhall, E. Dutra, F. Di Giuseppe, F. Pappenberger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 2 ; Nr. 18, no. 2 (2014-02-18), S.611-620 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120280
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-611-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The humanitarian crises caused by the recent droughts (2008–2009 and
2010–2011) in East Africa have illustrated that the ability to make accurate
drought forecasts with sufficient lead time is essential. The use of
dynamical model precipitation forecasts in combination with drought indices,
such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), can potentially lead to
a better description of drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. This
study evaluates the use of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) products in forecasting droughts in East Africa. ECMWF
seasonal precipitation shows significant skill for March–May and
October–December rain seasons when evaluated against measurements from the
available in situ stations from East Africa. The forecast for
October–December rain season has higher skill than for the March–May season.
ECMWF forecasts add value to the consensus forecasts produced during the
Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), which is the present
operational product for precipitation forecast over East Africa.
Complementing the original ECMWF precipitation forecasts with SPI provides
additional information on the spatial extent and intensity of the drought
event. |
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