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| Titel |
Historical trends in precipitation and stream discharge at the Skjern River catchment, Denmark |
| VerfasserIn |
I. B. Karlsson, T. O. Sonnenborg, K. H. Jensen, J. C. Refsgaard |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 2 ; Nr. 18, no. 2 (2014-02-18), S.595-610 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120279
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-595-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A 133 yr data set from the 1055 km2 Skjern River
catchment in western Denmark has been analysed with respect
to precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and
discharge. The precipitation series have been tested and corrected
using the standard normal homogeneity test and subsequently
corrected for undercatch. The degree of change in
the climatic variables is examined using the non-parametric
Mann–Kendall test. During the last 133 yr the area has experienced
a significant change in precipitation of 26% and a
temperature change of 1.4°C, leading to increases in river
discharge of 52% and groundwater recharge of 86%. A
lumped conceptual hydrological model, NAM, was calibrated
on the period 1951–1980 and showed generally an
excellent match between simulated and observed discharge.
The capability of the hydrological model to predict climate
change impact was investigated by looking at performances
outside the calibration period. The results showed a reduced
model fit, especially for recent time periods (after the 1980s),
and not all hydrological changes could be explained. This
might indicate that hydrological models cannot be expected
to predict climate change impacts on discharge as accurately
in the future, compared to the performance under present
conditions, where they can be calibrated. The (simulated)
stream discharge was subsequently analysed using high flow
and drought indices based on the threshold method. The extreme
signal was found to depend highly on the period chosen
as reference to normal. The analysis indicated that no
significant amplitude increase of the hydrograph for both wet
and dry extremes could be found superimposed on the overall
discharge increase. |
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