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| Titel |
Climate-driven interannual variability of water scarcity in food production potential: a global analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Kummu, D. Gerten, J. Heinke, M. Konzmann, O. Varis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 2 ; Nr. 18, no. 2 (2014-02-05), S.447-461 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120269
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-447-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Interannual climatic and hydrologic variability has been
substantial during the past decades in many regions. While climate
variability and its impacts on precipitation and soil moisture have been
studied intensively, less is known on subsequent implications for global
food production. In this paper we quantify effects of hydroclimatic
variability on global "green" and "blue" water availability and demand
in global agriculture, and thus complement former studies that have focused
merely on long-term averages. Moreover, we assess some options to overcome chronic
or sporadic water scarcity. The analysis is based on historical climate
forcing data sets over the period 1977–2006, while demography, diet
composition and land use are fixed to reference conditions (year 2000). In
doing so, we isolate the effect of interannual hydroclimatic variability
from other factors that drive food production. We analyse the potential of
food production units (FPUs) to produce a reference diet for their
inhabitants (3000 kcal cap−1 day−1, with 80% vegetal food
and 20% animal products). We applied the LPJmL vegetation and hydrology
model to calculate the variation in green-blue
water availability and the water requirements to produce that very diet. An
FPU was considered water scarce if its water availability was not sufficient
to produce the diet (i.e. assuming food self-sufficiency to estimate
dependency on trade from elsewhere). We found that 24% of the world's
population lives in chronically water-scarce FPUs (i.e. water is scarce every
year), while an additional 19% live under occasional water scarcity
(water is scarce in some years). Among these 2.6 billion people altogether,
55% would have to rely on international trade to reach the reference
diet, while for 24% domestic trade would be enough. For the remaining
21% of the population exposed to some degree of water scarcity, local food
storage and/or intermittent trade would be enough to secure the reference
diet over the occasional dry years. |
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