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| Titel |
The effects of global change upon United States air quality |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Gonzalez-Abraham, S. H. Chung, J. Avise, B. Lamb, E. P. Salathé, C. G. Nolte, D. Loughlin, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, T. Duhl, Y. Zhang, D. G. Streets |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 21 ; Nr. 15, no. 21 (2015-11-13), S.12645-12665 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120161
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-12645-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| To understand more fully the effects of global changes on
ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic
diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a
comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes
in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic
emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results
from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled
using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional
meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the
Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for
two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a
semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain,
respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of
projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological
fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic
emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature
(MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global
emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC
A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US
Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA
NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL)
energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends
current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that
daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a
range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental
US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of
the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and
changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1–6 ppb in
DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The
effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O
associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in
PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m−3 in the Northeast,
Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in
primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions
and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition
but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations. |
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