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| Titel |
Scenario-based assessment of buildings' damage and population exposure due to earthquake-induced tsunamis for the town of Alexandria, Egypt |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Pagnoni, A. Armigliato, S. Tinti |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 12 ; Nr. 15, no. 12 (2015-12-17), S.2669-2695 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119821
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2669-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Alexandria is the second biggest city in Egypt with regards to population, is a
key economic area in northern Africa and has very important tourist
activity. Historical records indicate that it was severely affected by a
number of tsunami events. In this work we assess the tsunami hazard by
running numerical simulations of tsunami impact in Alexandria through the
worst-case credible tsunami scenario analysis (WCTSA). We identify three
main seismic sources: the western Hellenic Arc (WHA – reference event
AD 365, Mw = 8.5), the eastern Hellenic Arc (EHA – reference event 1303,
Mw = 8.0) and the Cyprus Arc (CA – hypothetical scenario earthquake with
Mw = 8.0), inferred from the tectonic setting and from historical tsunami
catalogues. All numerical simulations are carried out in two sea level
conditions (mean sea level and maximum high-tide sea level) by means of the
code UBO-TSUFD, developed and maintained by the Tsunami Research Team of the
University of Bologna. Relevant tsunami metrics are computed for each
scenario and then used to build aggregated fields such as the maximum flood
depth and the maximum inundation area. We find that the case that produces
the most relevant flooding in Alexandria is the EHA scenario, with wave
heights up to 4 m. The aggregate fields are used for a building
vulnerability assessment according to a methodology developed in the
framework of the EU-FP6 project SCHEMA and further refined in this study, based on the
adoption of a suitable building damage matrix and on water inundation depth.
It is found that in the districts of El Dekhila and Al Amriyah, to the
south-west of the port of Dekhila, over 12 000 (13 400 in the case of maximum
high tide) buildings could be affected and hundreds of them could
sustain damaging consequences, ranging from critical damage to total collapse. It is also
found that in the same districts tsunami inundation covers an area of about
15 km2, resulting in more than 150 000 (165 000 in the case of maximum
high tide) residents being exposed. |
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