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| Titel |
On the inclusion of GPS precipitable water vapour in the nowcasting of rainfall |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Benevides, J. Catalão, P. M. A. Miranda |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 12 ; Nr. 15, no. 12 (2015-12-09), S.2605-2616 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119817
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2605-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The temporal behaviour of precipitable water vapour (PWV) retrieved from GPS
delay data is analysed in a number of case studies of intense precipitation
in the Lisbon area, in the period 2010–2012 and in a continuous annual cycle
of 2012 observations. Such behaviour is found to correlate positively with
the probability of precipitation, especially in cases of severe rainfall. The
evolution of the GPS PWV in a few stations is analysed by a least-squares
fitting of a broken line tendency, made by a temporal sequence of ascents and
descents over the data. It is found that most severe rainfall events occur in
descending trends after a long ascending period and that the most intense
events occur after steep ascents in PWV. A simple algorithm, forecasting rain
in the 6 h after a steep ascent of the GPS PWV in a single station, is found
to produce reasonable forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation in the
nearby region, without significant misses in what concerns larger rain
events, but with a substantial amount of false alarms. It is suggested that
this method could be improved by the analysis of 2-D or 3-D time-varying GPS
PWV fields or by its joint use with other meteorological data relevant to
nowcast precipitation. |
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