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| Titel |
Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0 |
| VerfasserIn |
L. E. Revell, F. Tummon, A. Stenke, T. Sukhodolov, A. Coulon, E. Rozanov, H. Garny, V. Grewe, T. Peter |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2015-05-27), S.5887-5902 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119762
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-5887-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air
pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may
influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century.
Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry–climate
model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport
tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution
and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of
ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO)
and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane
effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget,
in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate
scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect,
leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in
the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most
pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns:
between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at
constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year
period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have
an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of
increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in
the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor
emissions of NOx, CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a
6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st
century, with an 11 % increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase
maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in
the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling
ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO.
Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as
climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also
increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are
relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate
scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and
NOx; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is
approximately one-third of that caused by NOx. Climate impacts on ozone
through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx
remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic
emissions of NOx, such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission
policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric
ozone evolution through the 21st century. |
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