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| Titel |
Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Manconi, D. Giordan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 7 ; Nr. 15, no. 7 (2015-07-29), S.1639-1644 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119606
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1639-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We apply failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring
data for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope threatening Aosta
Valley in northern Italy. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we
analyze landslide surface displacements automatically and in near real time
on different temporal windows and apply straightforward statistical methods
to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here, we
present the result obtained for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable
slope located in Aosta Valley, northern Italy. Based on this case study, we
identify operational thresholds that are established on the reliability of
the forecast models. Our approach is aimed at supporting the management of
early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency. |
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