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| Titel |
Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data |
| VerfasserIn |
D. J. Befort, M. Fischer, G. C. Leckebusch, U. Ulbrich, A. Ganske, G. Rosenhagen, H. Heinrich |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 6 ; Nr. 15, no. 6 (2015-06-30), S.1437-1447 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119548
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1437-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for
the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global
climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach
for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed
and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events
are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly
direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event
affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40
data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is
shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as
well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of
storm surge events.
To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events,
we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate
change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model
under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an
increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about
12 % [(2001–2100)–(1901–2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of
storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal
variability and only one of three simulations shows
a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm
surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in
the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined.
Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events. |
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