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| Titel |
A science-based use of ensembles of opportunities for assessment and scenario studies |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Solazzo, S. Galmarini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 5 ; Nr. 15, no. 5 (2015-03-06), S.2535-2544 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119500
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-2535-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The multimodel ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context
(Fiore et al., 2009) is used here as an example of how a pre-inspection, diagnosis and
selection of an ensemble, can produce more reliable results. The procedure
is contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging model
simulations, assuming different models produce independent results, and
using the diversity of simulation as an illusory estimate of model
uncertainty. It is further and more importantly demonstrated how conclusions
can drastically change when future emission scenarios are analysed using an
un-inspected ensemble. The HTAP multimodel ensemble analysis is only taken
as an example of a widespread and common practice in air quality modelling. |
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