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| Titel |
Forecast-based financing: an approach for catalyzing humanitarian action based on extreme weather and climate forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Coughlan de Perez, B. van den Hurk, M. K. van Aalst, B. Jongman, T. Klose, P. Suarez |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 4 ; Nr. 15, no. 4 (2015-04-23), S.895-904 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119428
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-895-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Disaster risk reduction efforts traditionally focus on long-term
preventative measures or post-disaster response. Outside of these, there are
many short-term actions, such as evacuation, that can be implemented in the
period of time between a warning and a potential disaster to reduce the risk
of impacts. However, this precious window of opportunity is regularly
overlooked in the case of climate and weather forecasts, which can indicate
heightened risk of disaster but are rarely used to initiate preventative
action. Barriers range from the protracted debate over the best strategy for
intervention to the inherent uncomfortableness on the part of donors to
invest in a situation that will likely arise but is not certain. In
general, it is unclear what levels of forecast probability and magnitude are
"worth" reacting to. Here, we propose a novel forecast-based financing
system to automatically trigger action based on climate forecasts or
observations. The system matches threshold forecast probabilities with
appropriate actions, disburses required funding when threshold forecasts are
issued, and develops standard operating procedures that contain the mandate
to act when these threshold forecasts are issued. We detail the methods that
can be used to establish such a system, and provide illustrations from
several pilot cases. Ultimately, such a system can be scaled up in
disaster-prone areas worldwide to improve effectiveness at reducing the risk
of disaster. |
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