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| Titel |
Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance |
| VerfasserIn |
B. F. Prahl, D. Rybski, O. Burghoff, J. P. Kropp |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 4 ; Nr. 15, no. 4 (2015-04-09), S.769-788 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119418
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-769-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential
property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to
their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most
severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under
differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We
discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing
difficulties for both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions.
From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the
frequently discussed cubic wind–damage relationship and recent studies that
report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The
performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two sources of wind
gust data, direct observations by the German Weather Service and ERA-Interim
reanalysis data. While the choice of gust data has little impact on the
evaluation of German storm loss, spatially resolved coefficients of variation
reveal dependence between model and data choice. The comparison shows that
the probabilistic models by Heneka et al. (2006) and Prahl et al.
(2012) both provide accurate loss predictions for moderate to extreme losses, with
generally small coefficients of variation. We favour the latter model in
terms of model applicability. Application of the versatile deterministic
model by Klawa and Ulbrich (2003) should be restricted to extreme loss, for which it
shows the least bias and errors comparable to the probabilistic model by
Prahl et al. (2012). |
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