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| Titel |
Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Wanders, H. A. J. Van Lanen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 3 ; Nr. 15, no. 3 (2015-03-10), S.487-504 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119367
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-487-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow)
likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change.
The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on
climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In
this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and
bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2
emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set
(reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate
drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period
(1971–2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model
reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types,
suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce
realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future
(2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease
in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of
both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought
events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected
in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of
the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the
smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably
will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate
regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period
showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most
uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration
and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought
events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the
increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to
design pro-active measures. |
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