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| Titel |
Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Miller, S. N. Jonkman, M. Ledden |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2015-01-12), S.59-73 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119272
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-59-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane
Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been
improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per
year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in
post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and
consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central
area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk
to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model
has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The
model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for
Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that – depending on the flood scenario – the
estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to
nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees
leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are
combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans.
When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other
flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria
found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively
high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the
flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be
significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level
are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion. |
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