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| Titel |
Considering hazard estimation uncertain in urban resilience strategies |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Barroca, P. Bernardara, S. Girard, G. Mazo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2015-01-06), S.25-34 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119269
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-25-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Urbanization has led to a higher concentration of both persons and property, which
increases the potential degree of damage liable to occur in crisis
situations. Urban areas have become increasingly complex socio-technical
systems where the inextricable tangle of activities, networks and regions
means disruptions propagate rather than disseminate.
In risk anticipation, measures of prevention and anticipation are generally
defined by using hazard modelling. The relevance of this approach may be
subject to discussion (Zevenbergen et al., 2011) particularly in
view of the large number of uncertainties that make hazard evaluation so
difficult. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is initially called upon in
a theoretical approach before any applied approach. Generally, the
uncertainty under study is not assessed in hydrological studies. This
uncertainty is related to the choice of evaluation model used for extreme
values. This application has been used on the territory of the town of
Besançon in eastern France. Strategic orientations for regional
resilience are presented taking into account the high levels of uncertainty
concerning estimates for possible flow rates. |
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