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| Titel |
A new high-resolution BOLAM-MOLOCH suite for the SIMM forecasting system: assessment over two HyMeX intense observation periods |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, E. Coraci, P. Malguzzi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2015-01-05), S.1-24 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119268
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| High-resolution numerical models can be effective in monitoring and
predicting natural hazards, especially when dealing with Mediterranean
atmospheric and marine intense/severe events characterised by a wide range
of interacting scales. The understanding of the key factors associated to
these Mediterranean phenomena, and the usefulness of adopting
high-resolution numerical models in their simulation, are among the aims of
the international initiative HyMeX – HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean
EXperiment. At the turn of 2013, two monitoring campaigns (SOPs – Special
Observation Periods) were devoted to these issues. For this purpose, a new
high-resolution BOlogna Limited Area Model-MOdello LOCale (BOLAM-MOLOCH)
suite was implemented in the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research
(ISPRA) hydro–meteo–marine forecasting system (SIMM – Sistema Idro-Meteo-Mare) as a possible alternative
to the operational meteorological component based on the BOLAM model
self-nested over two lower-resolution domains. The present paper provides an
assessment of this new configuration of SIMM with respect to the operational
one that was also used during the two SOPs. More in details, it investigates
the forecast performance of these SIMM configurations during two of the
Intense Observation Periods (IOPs) declared in the first SOP campaign. These
IOPs were characterised by high precipitations and very intense and
exceptional high waters over the northern Adriatic Sea (acqua alta). Concerning the
meteorological component, the high-resolution BOLAM-MOLOCH forecasts are
compared against the lower-resolution BOLAM forecasts over three areas –
mostly corresponding to the Italian HyMeX hydrometeorological sites – using
the rainfall observations collected in the HyMeX database. Three-month
categorical scores are also calculated for the MOLOCH model. Despite the
presence of a slight positive bias of the MOLOCH model, the results show
that the precipitation forecast turns out to improve with increasing
resolution. In both SIMM configurations, the sea storm surge component is
based on the same version of the Shallow water HYdrodynamic Finite Element Model (SHYFEM). Hence, it is evaluated the
impact of the meteorological forcing provided by the two adopted BOLAM
configurations on the SHYFEM forecasts for six tide-gauge stations. A
benchmark for this part of the study is given by the performance of the
SHYFEM model forced by the ECMWF IFS forecast fields. For this component,
both BOLAM-SHYFEM configurations clearly outperform the benchmark. The
results are, however, strongly affected by the predictability of the weather
systems associated to the IOPs, thus suggesting the opportunity to develop
and test a time-lagged multi-model ensemble for the prediction of high storm
surge events. |
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