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| Titel |
The effects of energy paths and emission controls and standards on future trends in China's emissions of primary air pollutants |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Zhao, J. Zhang, C. P. Nielsen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 17 ; Nr. 14, no. 17 (2014-09-01), S.8849-8868 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118987
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-14-8849-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| To examine the efficacy of China's actions to control atmospheric pollution,
three levels of growth of energy consumption and three levels of
implementation of emission controls are estimated, generating a total of
nine combined activity-emission control scenarios that are then used to
estimate trends of national emissions of primary air pollutants through
2030. The emission control strategies are expected to have more effects than
the energy paths on the future emission trends for all the concerned
pollutants. As recently promulgated national action plans of air pollution
prevention and control (NAPAPPC) are implemented, China's anthropogenic
pollutant emissions should decline. For example, the emissions of SO2,
NOx, total suspended particles (TSP), PM10, and PM2.5 are
estimated to decline 7, 20, 41, 34, and 31% from 2010 to
2030, respectively, in the "best guess" scenario that includes national
commitment of energy saving policy and implementation of NAPAPPC. Should the
issued/proposed emission standards be fully achieved, a less likely
scenario, annual emissions would be further reduced, ranging from 17 (for primary
PM2.5) to 29% (for NOx) declines in 2015, and the
analogue numbers would be 12 and 24% in 2030. The uncertainties of
emission projections result mainly from the uncertain operational conditions
of swiftly proliferating air pollutant control devices and lack of detailed
information about emission control plans by region. The predicted emission
trends by sector and chemical species raise concerns about current pollution
control strategies: the potential for emissions abatement in key sectors may
be declining due to the near saturation of emission control devices use;
risks of ecosystem acidification could rise because emissions of alkaline
base cations may be declining faster than those of SO2; and radiative
forcing could rise because emissions of positive-forcing carbonaceous
aerosols may decline more slowly than those of SO2 emissions and
thereby concentrations of negative-forcing sulfate particles. Expanded
control of emissions of fine particles and carbonaceous aerosols from small
industrial and residential sources is recommended, and a more comprehensive
emission control strategy targeting a wider range of pollutants (volatile
organic compounds, NH3 and CO, etc.) and taking account of more diverse
environmental impacts is also urgently needed. |
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