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| Titel |
Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Markakis, M. Valari, A. Colette, O. Sanchez, O. Perrussel, C. Honore, R. Vautard, Z. Klimont, S. Rao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 14 ; Nr. 14, no. 14 (2014-07-17), S.7323-7340 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118894
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-14-7323-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with
the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two
future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection
until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts
(AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale
emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model
evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in
very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by
20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime
precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario
(+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate
ozone decrease (−3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially
different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found
to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that
this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the
current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at
the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive
conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in
the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at
different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar
results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport
and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual
and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period.
The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due
to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions
resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modeled in the
control simulation. |
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