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| Titel |
Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Simpson, C. Andersson, J. H. Christensen, M. Engardt, C. Geels, A. Nyiri, M. Posch, J. Soares, M. Sofiev, P. Wind, J. Langner |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 14, no. 13 ; Nr. 14, no. 13 (2014-07-09), S.6995-7017 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118876
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-14-6995-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of
reactive nitrogen (Nr) over Europe was studied using four offline
regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) driven by the same global
projection of future climate over the period
2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were
used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to
isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary
conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the results
across the different models.
The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver
of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change.
Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of
oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of
NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely
reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack
of sulfur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in
a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous
ammonia.
Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent,
although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas
and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest
difference in the models is for predictions of individual
N compounds. One model (EMEP) was used to explore changes in
critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced
increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that
the area of ecosystems that exceeds critical loads is reduced from
64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently
estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in
NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas
exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3
emission increase). |
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